Weekly Market Recap: November 1, 2025

Bullish Signals Amid Fed Cuts and Bearish Interpretations

Welcome to LegacyHaven Advisors’ weekly market update, where we guide pre-retirees and retirees toward a retirement that thrives in any economy. This week, major indices posted mixed gains as earnings season heats up, the Fed delivered a rate cut, and the government shutdown drags on. Technology surged, real estate lagged, and commodities consolidated. Let’s unpack the action, Powell’s key signals, and how to position your portfolio for growth and stability.

Tech Drives Gains, Small Caps Slip

Equities showed resilience despite volatility, with the S&P 500 up 0.71%, the Nasdaq rising 1.94%, the Dow gaining 0.75%, and the Russell 2000 dipping -1.36%. Markets are near all-time highs, fueled by strong corporate earnings, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, with double-digit growth for the fourth straight quarter. The Technology sector led with a 2.54% advance, driven by AI and semiconductor optimism, while Real Estate lagged at -3.48%, pressured by rate sensitivity and economic uncertainty.

Gold and silver consolidated after recent highs, with spot gold steady near $3,987 and silver up modestly 1.2% on safe-haven demand. The ongoing government shutdown, now in its second month with no resolution, continues to cloud data economic data.

Key Takeaway: Earnings outperformance (EPS growth across S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000) drowns out headline noise. Tune out the worry—focus on facts like growing GDP and positive buyback activity resuming soon.

Powell's Cautious 25 bps Cut

The FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on October 29, the second reduction of 2025, supporting growth amid a cooling labor market. Powell's tone was pragmatic: inflation at 3% (up from 2.9%) shows progress toward 2%, but the shutdown's "data fog" leaves the Fed "flying blind". A December cut isn't guaranteed as committee divisions highlight inflation risks.

The Fed also paused quantitative tightening starting December 1, halting balance sheet shrinkage to preserve liquidity. Investors showcased a lack of clarity after Powell was unclear about December rate hikes. However the act of ending QT is very bullish in itself, and with next months CPI report expected to showcase a decrease in inflation, we believe this will give the Fed a signal to cut rates again in December, especially if the government shut down persists and other economic data is not available.

Action Step: With rate cuts fueling risk assets, review maturing fixed-income (CDs, bonds) and locking in higher rates for longer now is a strategic way to keep your portfolio ahead of the curve.

Bullish Backdrop, But Prepare for Volatility

Ignore headlines, fundamentals and macro economics scream bullish. GDP growing positively, expected cooling CPI report this month, QT ending December 1st, back-to-back cuts (third likely in December), positive EPS growth across indices, and stock buyback blackouts ending soon, this is a bullish set up for the end of the year. The Russell 2000 has the most upside. It just broke all-time highs recently, whereas the S&P and Nasdaq have been making new all times highs through the year. The Russel 2000 is also coming out of an earnings depression with the last two quarter showcasing positive earnings. Lowered rates also fuels small caps big time. Lower rates cut debt costs for small caps, boosting profitability and growth, ideal for "catch-up" plays.

Yet, growth isn't linear: Shutdown fog, credit fears, political noise (US-China tariffs) heighten volatility. Blend high-growth (market exposure via small caps, tech) with predictable income (annuities, bonds, life insurance) for a go anywhere portfolio. At LegacyHaven, we weight this mix to secure essentials while capturing upside.

What’s Next? Earnings continue (136 S&P firms next week); monitor CPI for cut clues. Lock in fixed rates before they fall further, consult your advisor on allocation.

Fixed-income allocations maturing soon? Fill out our form below to secure higher yields and optimize your portfolio with safety and growth.

Why This Matters for Your Retirement

This environment rewards balance. Rate cut-fueled growth in Russell 2000/tech, but volatility risks amplify sequence-of-returns threats. We help you:

• Secure Income: So you can be confident no matter how the market is performing.

• Protect Wealth: So that you never run out of money in retirement.

• Thrive in Any Economy: By forecasting economic conditions and positioning accordingly.

Take the Next Step: Try our Sequence of Returns Calculator to test your portfolio's resilience, or book a call below to secure your retirement income.