Weekly Market Recap: November 14, 2025

Volatility Returns, But the Bull Case Stays Intact

Welcome to LegacyHaven Advisors’ weekly market update, where we guide pre-retirees and retirees toward a retirement that thrives in any economy. This week, major indices traded in a tight range SPY up 0.14%, Nasdaq down -0.14%, Dow up 0.34%, and Russell 2000 down -1.71%. Markets started strong, faded mid-week, then saw buyers step in on Friday, déjà vu from last week. The government shutdown is finally over, but fresh data fears sparked risk-off selling. Let’s unpack the noise, the fundamentals, and how to keep your portfolio balanced.

Markets Flatline, Risk Assets Flash Warning Signs

Equities traded choppy but held near all-time highs. The Russell 2000 led the decline at -1.71%, as fear of December rate-cut delays hit small caps hardest. Whenever uncertainty spikes, the most leveraged or risk-sensitive assets get sold first, classic rotation.

Volatility (VIX) has been ticking up since October, and stocks are off recent peaks. Is it time to panic? No. Zoom out: 90% of S&P companies are past buyback blackouts, earnings are accelerating across S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, and the macro backdrop remains bullish.

Key Takeaway: Short-term fear is noise. Long-term structure: earnings, buybacks, and expected rate cuts, still points higher.

Government Shutdown Ends—But Data Fears Linger

The shutdown officially ended this week, resuming economic reports. Markets initially sold off on fears that strong data (jobs, CPI) could delay a December rate cut. But here’s the reality:

• Next CPI (due Nov 20) is expected to cool—giving the Fed cover to cut again

• QT ends December 1, a stealth liquidity boost

• Back-to-back cuts already in (Sept + Oct), with high probability odds for December

Even if data surprises to the upside, the Fed’s dovish bias and balance-sheet pause keep the path clear for lower rates into 2026.

Action Step: With cuts still on the table, review maturing fixed-income now. Lock in 5.50%–5.90% MYGA rates before new issuances drop another 0.25%–0.50%. Use our Live Annuity Rate Calculator to see what's possible.

Small Caps & Crypto Flashing Caution—But Not Collapse

Risk assets like crypto and small caps sold off hardest this week. Why?

• Crypto: High leverage = domino effect. One margin call triggers liquidations. Not fundamental, just technical deleveraging.

• Russell 2000: Normal volatility for small caps, especially post-shutdown data fears. But earnings are accelerating, rate cuts reduce debt costs, and the index is catching up after years of underperformance.

Bottom line: These aren’t structural breakdowns, they’re healthy shakeouts in a bull market. The Russell still has the most upside among major indices.

What’s Next? CPI on Nov 20, FOMC Dec 17. Earnings tailwind continues. Buybacks resume. Volatility may spike, but diversification and guaranteed income keep you calm.

Why This Matters for Your Retirement

This environment rewards balance. Having too much weight in assets like small caps and underweight fixed income, volatility risks amplify sequence-of-returns threats for retirees.

We help you:

• Secure Income: So you can be confident no matter how the market is performing.

• Protect Wealth: So that you never run out of money in retirement.

• Thrive in Any Economy: By forecasting economic conditions and positioning accordingly.

Take the Next Step: Try our Sequence of Returns Calculator to test your portfolio's resilience, or book a call below to secure your retirement income.